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Evaluating Temporal Analysis Methods UsingResidential Burglary Data

机译:利用住宅盗窃数据评估时间分析方法

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摘要

Law enforcement agencies, as well as researchers rely on temporal analysis methods in many crime analyses, e.g., spatio-temporal analyses. A number of temporal analysis methods are being used, but a structured comparison in different configurations is yet to be done. This study aims to fill this research gap by comparing the accuracy of five existing, and one novel, temporal analysis methods in approximating offense times for residential burglaries that often lack precise time information. The temporal analysis methods are evaluated in eight different configurations with varying temporal resolution, as well as the amount of data (number of crimes) available during analysis. A dataset of all Swedish residential burglaries reported between 2010 and 2014 is used (N = 103,029). From that dataset, a subset of burglaries with known precise offense times is used for evaluation. The accuracy of the temporal analysis methods in approximating the distribution of burglaries with known precise offense times is investigated. The aoristic and the novel aoristic_ext method perform significantly better than three of the traditional methods. Experiments show that the novel aoristic_ext method was most suitable for estimating crime frequencies in the day-of-the-year temporal resolution when reduced numbers of crimes were available during analysis. In the other configurations investigated, the aoristic method showed the best results. The results also show the potential from temporal analysis methods in approximating the temporal distributions of residential burglaries in situations when limited data are available.
机译:执法机构以及研究人员在许多犯罪分析(例如时空分析)中都依赖时间分析方法。目前正在使用许多时间分析方法,但是尚未完成不同配置中的结构化比较。这项研究旨在通过比较五种现有的和一种新颖的时间分析方法来估计经常缺乏精确时间信息的住宅盗窃的犯罪时间,来填补这一研究空白。在具有不同时间分辨率的八个不同配置中评估了时间分析方法,并分析了可用的数据量(犯罪数量)。使用了2010年至2014年之间报告的所有瑞典住宅盗窃的数据集(N = 103,029)。从该数据集中,将具有已知准确进攻时间的入室盗窃子集用于评估。研究了时间分析方法在以已知的准确进攻时间近似估计盗窃案分布的准确性。主动脉和新颖的aoristic_ext方法的性能明显优于三种传统方法。实验表明,在分析过程中犯罪数量减少的情况下,新颖的aoristic_ext方法最适合于按年度时间分辨率估算犯罪频率。在调查的其他配置中,主动脉方法显示出最佳结果。结果还表明,在数据有限的情况下,时态分析方法有可能近似估算入室盗窃的时态分布。

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    Boldt, Martin; Borg, Anton;

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  • 年度 2016
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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